The Royal Institution
The Royal InstitutionThe geometry of chaos can explain our uncertain world, from weather and pandemics to quantum physics and free will.
This talk was recorded at the Ri on 21 April 2023.
Join Tim Palmer as he explores how it provides the means to predict the world around us, and provides new insights into some of the most astonishing aspects of our universe and ourselves.
Watch the Q&A here: https://youtu.be/VZQnFQAJ6Io
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00:00 Introduction
00:55 Illustrating Chaos Theory with pendulums (demo)
02:44 Fractal geometry: A bridge from Newton to 20th Century mathematics
08:43 The three great theorems of 20th Century mathematics
11:24 The concept of State Space
14:43 Lorenz State Space
19:24 Cantor’s Set and the prototype fractal
22:52 Hilbert’s Decision Problem
24:04 The link between 20th Century mathematics and fractal geometry
27:21 The predictability of chaotic systems
32:26 Predicting hurricanes with Chaos Theory
43:44 The Bell experiment: proving the universe is not real?
51:45 Counterfactuals in Bell’s theorem
56:29 Applying fractals to Bell’s theorem
01:03:57 The end of spatial reductionism
Buy Tim’s book ‘The Primacy of Doubt’ here: https://geni.us/5bgfg
Tim Palmer is a Royal Society Research Professor in the Department of Physics at the University of Oxford. Following a PhD in general relativity theory, he spent much of his career working on the predictability and dynamics of weather and climate, developing probabilistic ensemble prediction systems across a range of weather and climate timescales. He also researches the foundations of quantum physics, in addition to applications of quantum and imprecise computing. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society and an International Member of the US National Academy of Sciences. Amongst other awards, he has won the Institute of Physics Dirac Gold Medal, and the top medals of the American and European Meteorological Societies.
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45 Comments
@bioxbiox
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMThis lecture brought me a so much pleasure for the mind. It is so well presented and narrated that such a complicated matter is easily understandable even for nonspecialists.
@richardgalea9884
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMThe number 1(one) metaphysically represents a photon……..It cannot be subdivided! ……Forget Cantor’s infinities!
@berg0002
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMEautiful how you visualise a property of a space defined by interrelationships of points in space, where not the so-called attractor attracts, but rather the relationships in their dynamics prohibit the system to go there.
@richardchapman1592
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMSurely we should consider in Bell experiments that when there are entangled particles there is one pair at one beam splitter and another pair at another beam splitter. You have actually selected out pairs of particles that only have the characteristics of seeming entangled. One possibility for that is if there is a transverse random walk element taking each particle on a path slightly offbeam and only those appearing to have related characteristics get measured then go slightly offbeam to the next beam splitter or detector and are not selected there but another pair is.
@marjola-t8h
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMClimat change is not caused by humanity, the impact of huminity is negligible. It is just ideology not science. Climate is not predictable
@luizaquino559
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMYou have to analyze five dimensions to work wirh Derivatives: Actual Price, Strike Price, Time to Delivery, Volatility of the Ative and Interest Rate. ( Black and Scholes Formula )
@p1ll4r
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PM🙂
@chandrapalsingh5573
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMI think the world is still deterministic, for the fact small changes too occur, following laws of physics, changing the whole products…but I think, our inability to calculate small changes, doesn't means it is not deterministic.
@jamielacourse7578
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMFinally…..something to watch that isn't insulting to the intelligence.
@isatousarr7044
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMChaos theory and geometry are fascinating fields that, together, can provide profound insights into understanding the complexities of the natural world. Chaos theory, a branch of mathematics, deals with systems that appear to be disordered or random but are actually governed by deterministic laws. These systems are highly sensitive to initial conditions a property known as the "butterfly effect." This means that even tiny changes in the starting point of a system can lead to vastly different outcomes over time, making long-term prediction extremely difficult.
Geometry, on the other hand, provides a mathematical framework to study the shapes, spaces, and structures that form the basis of many natural and physical systems. In chaos theory, concepts like fractals and strange attractors use geometric structures to illustrate how chaotic systems behave. These geometric patterns reveal that even in seemingly unpredictable environments, there are underlying structures and rules that govern the behavior of the system.
While chaos theory and geometry cannot predict the future with absolute certainty due to their sensitivity to initial conditions, they can help us understand the underlying principles and patterns that drive complex systems. For example, weather forecasting uses chaotic models to predict short-term weather patterns, and in physics, chaos theory can explain phenomena in fluid dynamics, planetary orbits, and even some aspects of biological systems.
However, when it comes to long-term predictions, chaos theory shows that even small errors in measurement can compound and lead to unpredictable outcomes, limiting our ability to make precise forecasts over extended periods. Geometry can aid in visualizing and interpreting these chaotic behaviors, helping scientists identify recurring patterns and the geometric properties that underpin complex phenomena.
In essence, while chaos theory and geometry don't provide us with crystal-clear predictions of how the world will behave in the future, they allow us to gain a deeper understanding of the rules and structures that govern complex systems. This knowledge can lead to better models and strategies for dealing with unpredictable phenomena in fields like meteorology, ecology, economics, and more, offering insights that help us navigate the uncertainties of our world.
@JamesGibson-p1m
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMAbsolutely outstanding – thank you.
@johnlewis5330
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMWhat an amazing lecture.
@PhilCallis
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMA cosmological fractal attractor would seem like a huge ask if the alternative wasn’t a multiverse
@ryangraffius1474
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMIt’s a mid/side geometric transformation from 2D to 4D. No 3D interaction. We use this in audio for printing vinyl records.
The needle will skip out of the ‘sides’ if there is too much Low End. The Low end is moved into the ‘depth’.
Not unlike magnetic dipole, the ‘sides’ are stereophonic and the mid remains monophonic
X+Y = M. correlated information
X-Y= S. Uncorrelated information
This becomes the bell curve of mid/side probabilities.
S + M +(-)S as dual’ correlated pathways.
fractal form. (As above, So below)
As a convention (like the direction electrical current travels) we have to choose…
Inside out to outside in (3D) or (4D)
Outside in to inside out (4D) or (3D)
Which one we choose alters the use case of the fractal geometry.
And thus, we begin to understand the ‘musical’ organizational principle of the cosmology. Because it is scalular (not scalar) in nature.
@BlergleslinkVettermoo
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMGreat lecture, but Palmer may have been in error about a point of history: it wasn't Newton but Kepler who discovered that planetary orbits are elliptical.
@mandem7177
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMReally good, I like them deep and this is DEEP
@ulyssesk7325
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMjsut asd lucy
@ulyssesk7325
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMi plasyed very silent music to break th time loop dont blame me
@ulyssesk7325
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMyeah i guess that you if you are lazy like chaos teory
@SaveSoilSaveSoil
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMThe gravity demonstration is beautiful! Thank you!
@Peter_Telling
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMThanks!
@Czeckie
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMim not sure I buy it, but it's definitely an interesting and creative idea
@jameswoodard2232
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMKinda??? Good theory… terrible English.
@psolien
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMJust another of those cases where a good scientist makes for a horrible science communicator ! No shame in that. It's a separate skill and very few people can do both. Dr Palmer …not one of those people. If you already understand the theory robustly enough, you can figure out what he means to say…otherwise, it may be quite missleading
@RichardDavis-wk3tx
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMchaos theory can't make sense of the 3 body problem
@sylvan186
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMMany thoughts arising from this!
@Jersey-towncrier
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMThe world is simple, but perceiving makes it not so…
@ruelapas6240
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMToo many chitchat. I wish it was direct to the point,
@andrejgrebenc3235
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMClimate Change can be uncomputable!!!
@Am33304
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMI don’t know why, but the sight of a well-dressed, well-spoken man, holding forth and gesturing with his body and hands to an audience, in this hall, discussing physics and composing thought experiments and introducing graphic representations of the material he’s talking about, strikes me as ludicrous. At first glance I wanted to punch his face. I don’t understand this impulse, but I take notice of it for a later date perhaps.
Now, since this is a physics site, I anticipate scornful rebukes and personal insults to follow as replies, but since I don’t receive notifications of replies, you’ll be wasting your spite. But if you get nothing positive from this comment, I think that’s too bad. Everything is potentially relevant in the observational habits of the best scientists.
@klyanadkmorr
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMITA kinda been guessing that just learning abt Fractal math and how it could be used to represent physics chemistry. Spooky action at a distance is that all our perceived reality matter is underlying connected in subspace effecting each other through emergent forces energy
@ddtt1398
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMA measurement involves a phase transition where the macroscopic pointer variable of the apparatus goes from the initial metastable state to one of the stable states. Not doing an experiment means that nothing happens. Counterfactuals do not make sense. Getting the whole universe in the argumenting, means that they don't have any clue.
@BiswajitBhattacharjee-up8vv
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMGeometry of Chaos at first sight appear a repeated module or a pattern. Lorenz attacter make the predictive pattern. Bell's theorem and a pattern in correlation naturally bring the subject towards future of physics. Uniform field near earth or heavenly body always sense a charge of G .
G is geometry of chaos or stochastic or a pattern in randomness. A riddle that flipped between Einstein and Newton now need a third leap like third reference or party of Bell's.
A quality lecturer makes me satisfied with few new results into gravity .
Sir Penrose namaste from me to all of you
& 2020.
@theosmid8321
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMThe tilted table flabbergasted me in the sense that I could not imagine a better example of how things work within the range of probability and keeping them in a frame of reference. Very well done!
@JosephKings-j9f
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMthis guy has a mind that can work better but doesnt because of his pay, lot of potential.
@JosephKings-j9f
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMmaking maths boring is a sin, but interesting stuff here.
@zeroonetime
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMInfinity Squared I.S. 010 Geometric Chaos.
@MYNAME_ABC
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMThe political climate about that globalists "climate change" pretext for carbon tax, global pauperisation, control, surveillance and ultimately enslavement will change as soon as the chaotic probability for freedom and prosperity for most individuals statistically gets smaller and smaller, while the globalists keep riding their luxurious private jets to the "climate change" conferences, where the food and prostitutes are luxurious. Votes around the globe will change the political climate soon, as more and more feel threatened to live their ordinary lives! At least that is mankinds hope…
@Jszar
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMRI talks usually have clear, crisp audio, even when the recording is quite old. Unfortunately, they seem to have been having trouble this time around. I found that the background crackle and muddiness made it very difficult to figure out what the speaker was saying. (That said, I have known audio processing issues.)
@michaelc3977
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMNotice how he said it would be very difficult to predict the motion of the double pendulum. Very difficult, but NOT impossible. This is because everything IS predictable. Chaos does NOT exist in this reality. EVERYTHING happens according to the laws of physics. There are no miracles. There are NO spontaneous events which take place outside the bounds of physics. EVERYTHING is predictable if all the variables are known. There is NO free will. There is NO chaos.
@Techtonix954
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMIf you could see "chaos theory" you would see no chaos at all. They should rename that. 😅 Actually, they will one day.
@EdT.-xt6yv
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PM27:20
@euclidofalexandria3786
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMEnergy as plasma has five fundamental nodes, it can be stored compressed in a fractal space when space is deformed…there are sets of geometries for classes of archaic black holes, they could be dark matter. once an event occurs, they might exlode… or explode and persist…
@anmolagrawal5358
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PM14:35 Finally got his first laugh out of the audience. I was honestly feeling bad for him because there had been no response before this
@dosesandmimoses
03/01/2025 - 3:11 PMI enjoyed this lecture!